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Our September survey of the 2016 race for PA, including President and Senate numbers and a closer look at what is really going on in voters' minds.
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This year in Harper Polling’s Our Commonwealth Poll, we have burning insights into everything from Pennsylvanians’ favorite salad dressings to their happiness and peculiar regional dialects. Plus, a series on perceptions of professional athletes, construction workers, CEOs and more.
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This week RunSwitch PR and Harper Polling conducted a politics and issues survey among 500 registered voters in the state of Kentucky, ahead of the Fancy Farm political picnic.
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Incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet leads Republican challenger Darryl Glenn in the race for Senate in Colorado. Plus findings on the Presidential race in Colorado.
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Our final survey of Pennsylvania’s 2016 Democratic primary election shows Katie McGinty surging to the lead in the waning days of the campaign for U.S. Senate.
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With about three weeks until Election Day, we take a look at the Democratic primary races for President, Senate and Attorney General.
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A look at the Democratic and Republican primary races in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania Republicans are more motivated to beat Hillary Clinton than Democrats are to beat Donald Trump.
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Democrats are making some gains on Senator Toomey and Clinton leads Republicans in hypothetical match-ups in the general election.
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Harper Polling's annual survey of Pennsylvania's people, places and culture, including: Most Respected University, Favorite Convenience Store, Favorite Amusement Park, Best Beer, Greatest Pennsylvanian, and the age old question: Table or Booth?
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The 2015 Our Commonwealth Poll featuring fairs, scrapple, and the ubiquitous convenience stores.
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A mere 29% of likely voters in the state favor “allowing Syrian refugees to resettle in Pennsylvania” while 60% oppose the policy.
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Our surveys of likely Republican primary voters and caucus attendees in three early-voting states demonstrate that the issue of national security and terrorism will likely determine the presidential nominee for the Republican Party in 2016.
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Survey research of likely voters in Illinois finds widespread support for measures which increase access to medical marijuana.
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A survey of the Democratic primary here in Pennsylvania, including President, Senate and Attorney General Ballots. Plus , the tattoo factor...
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Donald Trump maintains a strong lead in New Hampshire, and Jeb Bush leads the field in the race for second place.
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Donald Trump holds the advantage in South Carolina, earning 29% of the vote on the Presidential Republican Primary ballot test. Ted Cruz (17%) leads a very tight race for second place in the first Southern state, followed by Marco Rubio (15%), Jeb Bush (14%) and John Kasich (13%).
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Top Story of 2013, Senate in '16: Kane & Sestak, Digging deeper on Obamacare, the PA Transportation bill, State Lottery privatization, Minimum Wage, Paycheck Protection, Business vs. Labor, Favorite NFL team, and familial relations between Steelers and Eagles fans
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Home to two of the state's most high profile politicians, York County is the new hub of political activity in Pennsylvania...
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The race for Senate in Michigan has moved into a virtual tie with Democratic Congressman Gary Peters leading former Republican Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land 45-44%.
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Republicans now lead on the generic ballot for Senate, 44-41%. Republican Terry Lynn Land leads Democrat Gary Peters by 3%.
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Amid alarming disapproval of President Obama’s job performance and his health care law, Republicans hold a 4% lead on the generic Senate ballot in Iowa. President Obama’s net -21% job approval is nearly identical to the net -20% approval of Obamacare. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is the only one of five Republican contenders to lead former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton (43-38%) in Iowa.
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The Rantz campaign’s spring strategy has proven successful, resulting in notable improvement of Gus Rantz’s image and ballot separation from other candidates.
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Our survey of GOP primary voters finds Trump and Carson leading on the Presidential primary ballot.
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Our September survey including a look at the 2016 Senate race and the Pennsylvania budget impasse.
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Joe Sestak leads Katie McGinty on the Democratic primary Senate ballot.
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Our survey of likely voters in Minnesota's 8th Congressional District finds voter opposition to the Iran nuclear deal.
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In a series of hypothetical West Virginia Governor General election match-ups, our survey found Senator Joe Manchin leading all three potential Republican nominees.
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In an early look at the West Virginia Governor Republican primary race, Congressman David McKinley leads Attorney General Patrick Morrisey and President of the State Senate Bill Cole.
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Should he decide to run, Senator Joe Manchin would hold a commanding lead in the Democratic primary race for Governor in West Virginia.
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Kentucky GOP Primary 2-day
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Our statewide Pennsylvania poll including questions on the 2016 Senate race, Governor Wolf's tax plan, and Attorney General Kathleen Kane.
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Former Congressman and 2010 Senate candidate Joe Sestak leads Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski and Montgomery County Commissioner Josh Shapiro on a hypothetical Democratic Primary ballot for Senate 2016.
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Our survey of likely voters in North Carolina on behalf of American Crossroads finds Republican Senator Richard Burr in a solid position against two potential Democratic challengers heading into the 2016 election.
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Doug Ducey continues to lead in the Arizona Republican Gubernatorial primary. He now leads his closest opponent (Smith) 32-21%.
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Pennsylvania statewide gubernatorial poll. Including the gubernatorial ballot, approval for Wolf's tax plan, credibility of Corbett's answer to criticism of his education cuts, and how PA feels about the medicaid expansion.
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Incumbent Congressman Tim Bishop is in a dead heat with challenger Lee Zeldin in the race for New York’s 1st Congressional District.
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In the race to replace retiring Democratic Congressman Bill Owens in New York’s 21st Congressional District, Republican Elise Stefanik leads Democrat Aaron Woolf 45-37%.
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With less than four weeks to go, Republican challenger Evan Jenkins has opened up a 6-point lead on Congressman Nick Rahall, outside the survey’s margin of error.
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As the race for Governor of Pennsylvania draws to a close, Democratic challenger Tom Wolf leads incumbent Republican Governor Tom Corbett by 10% (50-40%).
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With less than a week remaining until Election Day, Republican Elise Stefanik has extended her 8% September lead over Democrat Aaron Woolf to 14% (47-33%).
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Thom Tillis has crept ahead of Kay Hagan in the closing days of the campaign. However, the race remains exceedingly close. The candidates have comparable image ratings, and the flow of campaign information shows that neither candidate has truly gained control of the race.
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RunSwitch PR and Harper Polling survey of the Kentucky Governor election. Three sets of results were released-- one for each party's primary and a general election sample.
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Our latest poll on behalf of Veterans for a Strong America shows Doug Ducey leading Christine Jones 23-21%.
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In a rematch from 2012, Congressman Brad Schneider is locked in a margin-of-error race with challenger Bob Dold, who leads Schneider 42-39%. Dold receives 79% of the Republican vote and 12% of the Democratic vote compared to Schneider who receives 74% support from Democrats and 9% from Republicans. Dold leads 34-32% among independents.
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In the Arizona Gubernatorial Primary, Doug Ducey leads the pack with 33% of the vote. 22% of voters remain undecided.
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Mississippi Senator Thad Cochran continues to lead his Republican primary challenger Chris McDaniel. Cochran leads McDaniel 52-35%, a net +7% gain for McDaniel since mid-December when we found Cochran leading 54-31%.
The ideological construct of the race has shifted favorably for McDaniel. In December, Cochran and McDaniel were tied at 43-43% among tea party voters. Now, McDaniel leads 53-35% among tea party voters.
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In the race for the Republican nomination to fill the seat of Senator Tom Coburn, Congressman James Lankford leads by 36%. Lankford’s strong advantage is driven by his popularity in the Oklahoma City media market where he leads House Speaker T.W. Shannon 77-9%. In the other large media market of Tulsa, Shannon trails by just 3%.
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Two key factors are driving Republicans’ best hope at winning a U.S. Senate seat since Spencer Abraham defeated Bob Carr in 1994. First, former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land starts the election year with a 13% name identification advantage over Congressman Gary Peters as well as an overall more favorable image with voters.
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Our survey shows Republican Senator Thad Cochran with a 23% lead over challenger Chris McDaniel and a net +42% image among Republican primary voters. However, the survey also reveals peril for Cochran if the race becomes defined as a contest between the establishment Republican Party candidate and the tea party candidate.
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The geographic and ideological contours of the Democratic primary race for Governor are beginning to take shape. Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz enjoys both a name identification advantage and a 7% lead over her nearest competitor, Katie McGinty.
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Newark Mayor Cory Booker appears headed for a sizable victory tomorrow in New Jersey’s Special Election to fill the Senate seat of the late Frank Lautenberg. Booker’s impending victory is fueled by leads of 20% or more among Moderate voters and voters in the New York and Philadelphia media markets. Booker’s net +12% image with voters is stellar, though his wide lead is largely a function of voters’ negative perception of Republican Steve Lonegan (net -7% image).
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A new Harper Polling/Public Policy Polling survey, conducted on behalf of Politico, finds Terry McAuliffe with his largest lead yet in either company’s polling. McAuliffe now has a 9 point advantage, getting 44% to 35% for Ken Cuccinelli and 12% for Libertarian Robert Sarvis.
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The poll shows little vulnerability for Pennsylvania Congressman Bill Shuster in what is being billed as one of the nation’s top tea party primary challenges to a sitting Republican incumbent.
Shuster draws 62% of the Republican primary vote against Art Halvorson and Travis Schooley, who garner 11% and 5% respectively.
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Former Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land holds a sizable advantage in the Republican primary election for the U.S. Senate. The survey tested both a 4-way and 2-way primary ballot. In the 4-way matchup, Land leads Holland Mayor Kurt Dysktra 45%-16%. Rob Steele, University of Michigan Regent, and Kim Small, Oakland County District Judge, received 4% and 2% respectively.
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Senator Mike Enzi begins a primary campaign against Liz Cheney with a substantial lead of 55%-21%...We caution that these numbers do not rule out a Cheney victory. What the poll does makes abundantly clear is that she is going to have to prosecute a vigorous case against the sitting Senator. Because the jury is skeptical at the outset that a change of representation in the Senate is needed.
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The results of three poll questions illustrate the challenges Governor Tom Corbett faces in pursuit of reelection. The baseline number for any generic Republican candidate running for Governor is 40% at this stage. Governor Corbett has the support of 24% of the electorate who believe he deserves reelection. A gubernatorial campaign that becomes a referendum on the direction of Pennsylvania’s economy under Governor Corbett would yield 29% of voters who believe it is “getting better.”
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Harper Polling conducted an experiment intended to shed light on a topic of much debate among political pollsters: Who do you call? Is your call file composed of registered voters or voters with a predetermined vote history?
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Democratic Congressman Ed Markey holds a formidable 12% lead over Republican Gabriel Gomez in the race to succeed Secretary of State John Kerry. However, there are clear signs of opportunity for Gomez.
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In the race to succeed retiring Senator Mike Johanns, Republicans hold a considerable advantage over Democrats. Fifty percent of likely voters in Nebraska prefer to be represented by a Republican in the U.S. Senate; 30% prefer a Democrat. Men opt for the Republican by 27% (52%-25%). Among women, the Republicans’ lead drops to 13% (48%-35%).
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On behalf of Minnesota Jobs Coalition, Harper Polling conducted a survey of likely voters in Minnesota. Looking ahead to next year’s gubernatorial campaign, 41% of Minnesota voters say Governor Mark Dayton deserves reelection. Forty-seven percent would prefer to give someone else a chance.
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Former Governor Sarah Palin leads a Republican primary ballot with the three most likely candidates: Palin, Lt. Governor Mead Treadwell and 2010 GOP Senate nominee Joe Miller. Palin leads slightly among both men and women at +1% and +4% respectively. Among voters who describe themselves as “very conservative”, Palin’s lead grows to 20% over Treadwell (43%-23%).
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Generic Congressional Ballot, Obama Job Approval, Immigration, Gay Marriage, North Korea, Stimulus, Social Security
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GOP Senate Primary: Cassidy leads Roemer by 24%, Landrieu leads Cassidy 46-41%, 38% see Landrieu as 'moderate', Only 9% say she votes 'against her party leaders', Why Landrieu remains opposed to gay marriage and Obamacare...
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Iowa Caucus Goers: Hillary way ahead with 63% / Iowa Republicans: Rubio 27%, Ryan 18% / The race for Harkin's Senate seat is wide open
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Capito leads McKinley 71%-15%. Rahall bests the field of Democrats with 38%.
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Governor Corbett's lawsuit against the NCAA. The Biggest PA Story of 2012. Messaging Pension Reform. The Andy Reid Firing. The Battle of PA Convenience Stores.
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Democratic & Republican Governor '14 Primaries, Medicaid Expansion, Most Respected Former PA Politician, Sandusky Prosecution, Marcellus Shale, Lottery Privatization
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There are two recent events in the Democratic primary race for Governor: former Auditor General Jack Wagner announced his candidacy as the only hopeful from the Southwest region and York businessman Tom Wolf launched a multimillion dollar advertising campaign across the state, including the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh media markets.
While the talk has been about Wagner’s potential for geographic advantage, the real impact in the race has been Wolf’s spending. In fact, it has given form to a race that to this point has been filled with candidates who lack name identification beyond niche constituencies.
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Democrats hold a 3% lead over Republicans on the generic ballot for United States Senate, 45-42%. Senator Jeff Merkley holds leads of 7% and 12% over his respective challengers, Jason Conger and Monica Wheby. In the race for Governor, Democratic incumbent John Kitzhaber holds a narrow 3% lead over Republican challenger Dennis Richardson, 46-43%.
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Republicans hold a 47-42% advantage on the generic ballot for Senate among Colorado likely voters. Eighty-seven percent of self-identified conservative voters prefer the Republican candidate and an identical 87% of liberal voters prefer the Democratic candidate. Independents prefer the Republican 41-33%.
Senator Mark Udall leads Congressman Cory Gardner 45-44%. The gender gap is balanced with Udall leading by 4% among women (47-43%) and Gardner leading by 4% among men (46-42%). Independents favor Gardner 41-35%.
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As Election Day approaches, there is reason for hope and fear with both campaigns in the Mississippi Senate Republican primary election.
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With a week to go, Tom Wolf continues to hold a comfortable lead in the Democratic primary election for Governor of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. However, what is significant about the poll results is how the Wolf campaign continues to control the flow of information in the race
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Former Bush White House aide Elise Stefanik leads by 45-37% over investment banker and 2012 GOP nominee Matt Doheny in the race for the Republican nomination in New York’s 21st congressional district.
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In a hypothetical matchup for U.S. Senate in 2016, Governor Sandoval leads Senator Harry Reid by 10% (53-43%).