Sarah Palin would have a narrow edge in the GOP primary to challenge Sen. Mark Begich (D-Alaska) in 2014, according to a poll whose sponsors hope to draft her for the race. Palin would take 32 percent of the primary vote, followed closely by Alaska Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell at 30 percent, according to the Republican firm Harper Polling. Joe Miller, the Tea Party-backed Republican nominee in 2010, would take 24 percent.

The Lower 48 may not have seen the last of Sarah Palin. The controversial ex-Alaska governor and former Republican vice presidential candidate is her party’s top choice in the upcoming race for the U.S. Senate, according to a new Harper Polling survey.

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) would start off with a slight edge over the GOP field if she decides to run for the Senate in Alaska, according to a new poll conducted for a group that's trying to draft her for the 2014 race.

A new Harper Polling poll shows a plurality of likely Alaskan Republican voters support their former Governor, Sarah Palin, as a U.S. Senate candidate in the 2014 GOP primary over Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell and 2010 Senate candidate Joe Miller.

It seems that Harper Polling has found that Palin leads by a slight plurality among Republicans for a potential race for the Senate. She polls 32 percent, while 30 percent support Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell and 14 percent support the 2010 Senate candidate from Alaska Joe Miller. The winner of such a primary contest would have to go up against the incumbent senator Mark Begish, a Democrat.

A new Harper Polling poll shows a plurality of likely Alaskan Republican voters support their former Governor, Sarah Palin, as a U.S. Senate candidate in the 2014 GOP primary over Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell and 2010 Senate candidate Joe Miller. The survey of 379 likely Republican voters found that 32 percent support Palin, whereas 30 percent support Treadwell and 14 percent support Miller. The Harper Polling poll, conducted via telephone on May 6 and May 7 on behalf of the Tea Party Leadership Fund, found that 45 percent of likely GOP voters think Palin would “fight hardest for conservative values,” compared to 25 percent who thought that of Treadwell and 15 percent of Miller.

A new poll shows that former Montana governor Brian Schweitzer (D) is in the driver's seat if he chooses to run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by U.S. Senator Max Baucus. The results, from GOP pollster Harper Polling, show a majority of Montanans, 54%, hold a favorable opinion of Schweitzer.

Former Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) leads all potential GOP candidates in a hypothetical campaign for the Senate in Montana, according to a new survey from GOP pollster Harper Polling. The former governor, who told The Hill last week that he'd consider a bid to replace retiring Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.), has a 54 percent approval rating in the state, with 37 percent disapproving, according to the poll.

HARPER FINDS SCHWEITZER LEADING IN MONTANA: No candidates have announced in Montana’s Senate race following the news that Sen. Max Baucus will retire, but a new survey from Harper Polling finds former Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer leading the field if he gets in. Schweitzer would lead Rep. Steve Daines by 10 points (50-40), former Gov. Marc Racicot by 4 points (47-43) and former state Sen. Corey Stapleton by 25 points (54-29).

Now McCleary’s team is working for Wendell Young and the UFCW, but his polls are accurate – if you read them carefully – and he is basically right: the whole question Republican senators now face is will their voters care enough to punish them if they let this issue slide and go to primary election day 2014 without this having been decided?

In the memo, pollster Brock McCleary said the intensity of opposition surpassed that of supporters. “It’s the difference between the guy who wouldn’t mind having another liquor store in his neighborhood and the guy who’s going to lose his job if they privatize the store where he works,” he wrote.

“Republicans have little hope of ever achieving meaningful entitlement reform if members feel powerless to defend themselves,” said Brock McCleary, a former deputy political director at the NRCC. “The reason we survived the Democrats’ ... Medicare attacks in 2012 was because we figured [out] how to counterpunch. Walden is merely showing the party how you can muddy the waters on Social Security. That’s his job.”

Brock McCleary, a former NRCC deputy political director, argued that the Obama political arm was a force in 2008 and 2012 because it had a figure to rally around — the president himself. Without Obama running, he said, the organization’s influence will be diluted in 2014. “I think it’s in the Republicans’ interests to take it very seriously, but I think there are limitations to what impact it could have without President Obama on the ballot,” McCleary said.

“Walden is doing the right thing for the 30 seats that control the majority of the House, and that’s what the mission of NRCC chair is,” said Brock McCleary, the president of Harper Polling and a former top political hand at the NRCC.

A full 62 percent of those polled by right-leaning Harper Polling believe Landrieu sides most often with party leaders, the main line of attack Republicans hope to use against the senator, who is running for reelection in a state President Obama lost by 17 points.

A new poll out from the GOP firm Harper Polling today shows Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu with modest leads over two potential GOP challengers, but also finds voters in the state are generally more inclined to back a Republican candidate in the race. Landrieu would beat Rep. Bill Cassidy by 5 points, 46-41, and Chas Roemer by 13 points, 46-33. Still, Landrieu sits under the 50-percent mark, an indication that she’s vulnerable next year.

“For all intents and purposes, the court could close the book on the issue federally. With public opinion changing as it is, Republicans on the Hill would surely benefit from facing fewer questions about gay marriage,” McCleary said. “The equal and opposite reaction, however, is that the fight will intensify at the state level. One senator’s gain is another governor’s loss.”

“No one is taking any messages out for a spin on this race,” said Brock McCleary, a former deputy political director at the National Republican Congressional Committee. “This is a very interesting race between two candidates that have a lot of back story. So I think that as much as any special election is rarely a referendum on the political environment, this has absolutely zero to do with what’s going on in the political environment in May of the off year.”

Pennsylvania divides a few ways: Phillies vs. Pirates. Democratic ex-factory towns vs. Republican ex-farming townships. Nittany Lions fans vs. everyone else. And Wawa vs. Sheetz - though that might be the least bitter rivalry: The state's two big gas-and-milk, Cokes-and-smokes, Tastykakes-and-store-built sandwich chains try not to fight. They're not like Ford vs. GM. Instead, they have mostly drawn lines and split the land between them. Like Comcast and TimeWarner Cable.

“Argo” and “Lincoln” won big at the Oscars. Here’s a pitch for the next Washington political story that is sure to be a Hollywood hit. The plot goes like this: A young, liberal Democratic actress returns home to run for the U.S. Senate. Her opponent is a sharp-elbowed conservative Republican who has been in Congress for over a quarter century. There is dramatic tension right from the start as it quickly becomes clear the idealistic newcomer actually has a chance to beat Goliath.