Q. In the Democratic primary election for Governor, which of the following Democrats would you most likely support: John Hanger, Rob McCord, Katie McGinty, Allyson Schwartz, Jack Wagner or Tom Wolf?
Mississippi Senator Thad Cochran continues to lead his Republican primary challenger Chris McDaniel. Cochran leads McDaniel 52-35%, a net +7% gain for McDaniel since mid-December when we found Cochran leading 54-31%.
The ideological construct of the race has shifted favorably for McDaniel. In December, Cochran and McDaniel were tied at 43-43% among tea party voters. Now, McDaniel leads 53-35% among tea party voters.
Democrats hold a 3% lead over Republicans on the generic ballot for United States Senate, 45-42%. Senator Jeff Merkley holds leads of 7% and 12% over his respective challengers, Jason Conger and Monica Wheby. In the race for Governor, Democratic incumbent John Kitzhaber holds a narrow 3% lead over Republican challenger Dennis Richardson, 46-43%.
Republicans hold a 47-42% advantage on the generic ballot for Senate among Colorado likely voters. Eighty-seven percent of self-identified conservative voters prefer the Republican candidate and an identical 87% of liberal voters prefer the Democratic candidate. Independents prefer the Republican 41-33%.
Senator Mark Udall leads Congressman Cory Gardner 45-44%. The gender gap is balanced with Udall leading by 4% among women (47-43%) and Gardner leading by 4% among men (46-42%). Independents favor Gardner 41-35%.
There are two recent events in the Democratic primary race for Governor: former Auditor General Jack Wagner announced his candidacy as the only hopeful from the Southwest region and York businessman Tom Wolf launched a multimillion dollar advertising campaign across the state, including the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh media markets.
While the talk has been about Wagner’s potential for geographic advantage, the real impact in the race has been Wolf’s spending. In fact, it has given form to a race that to this point has been filled with candidates who lack name identification beyond niche constituencies.
Republicans hold a 4% advantage over Democrats on the generic ballot for Senate. However, Democratic Senator Mark Warner leads Republican Ed Gillespie 44-38%. Medicare Advantage heats up as a 2014 campaign issue.
The GOP has their own controversial robopollster