Wyoming Senate Republican Primary

Conducted:  June 17-18, 2013
Respondents:  422
Margin of Error:  +/-4.77%

Senator Mike Enzi begins a primary campaign against Liz Cheney with a substantial lead of 55%-21%.  His lead is relatively consistent across most demographic groups with the exception of gender.  Among men, Enzi leads 62%-18%.  Cheney closes the gap somewhat among women, 48%-25%.

Q. If the Republican primary election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you be most likely to support: Liz Cheney or Mike Enzi?

We caution that these numbers do not rule out a Cheney victory.  What the poll does makes abundantly clear is that she is going to have to prosecute a vigorous case against the sitting Senator.  Because the jury is skeptical at the outset that a change of representation in the Senate is needed.

Senator Enzi’s image among state Republicans is overwhelmingly positive.  Seventy-six percent have a favorable opinion of the Senator.  Perhaps more pertinent is the fact that remarkably few GOP voters (6%) hold a negative opinion of Enzi.  Seventy-three percent give Enzi a positive job approval rating.  However, 25% of those voters are reluctant to say that Enzi deserves reelection.  Overall, 48% believe he deserves reelection while 28% believe they should give someone else a chance.

Cheney starts the race with a very respectable 45% to 15% favorable-to-unfavorable image rating.  Fifty-two percent of self-described “very conservative” voters and 43% of “somewhat conservative” voters have a favorable opinion of Cheney.

The Cheney name is in very good standing among Wyoming Republicans.  Seventy-four percent have a favorable opinion of former Vice President Dick Cheney.