West Virginia CD-3 General Election Poll
on behalf of Jenkins for Congress
October 7-8, 2014

TO:                   Interested Parties
FROM:            Brock McCleary
DATE:             October 9, 2014
RE:                   Key Poll Findings – West Virginia CD-3

With less than four weeks to go, Republican challenger Evan Jenkins has opened up a 6-point lead on Congressman Nick Rahall, outside the survey’s margin of error. 

On the head-to-head ballot test, Jenkins wins 50% of the vote, with Rahall trailing at 44%.  The challenger leads in both the Charleston-Huntington and Beckley-Bluefield media markets, and is winning independents by a 2-to-1 margin.

Rahall’s weak performance on the ballot is driven by negative job approval ratings. Fully 53% of voters disapprove of Congressman Rahall’s job performance, including more than one-third of Democrats.

Conducted October 7-8, the survey’s demographics reflect historical voter turnout data from the Secretary of State. Democrats made up 64% of survey respondents, with Republicans making up 26% of the sample. Likely voters not registered with either major party comprised the remainder.


Congressional Ballot Test

Q: If the election for Congress were held today, who would you vote for: Evan Jenkins, Republican from Huntington or Nick Rahall, Democrat from Beckley?

METHODOLOGY:
The sample size for the survey is 657 likely voters and the margin of error is +/-3.82%.  The Interactive Voice Response (IVR) automated telephone survey was conducted October 7-8, 2014 by Harper Polling on behalf of Jenkins for Congress.  The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Harper Polling