TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Brock McCleary
DATE: October 9, 2014
RE: Key Poll Findings – West Virginia CD-3
With less than four weeks to go, Republican challenger Evan Jenkins has opened up a 6-point lead on Congressman Nick Rahall, outside the survey’s margin of error.
On the head-to-head ballot test, Jenkins wins 50% of the vote, with Rahall trailing at 44%. The challenger leads in both the Charleston-Huntington and Beckley-Bluefield media markets, and is winning independents by a 2-to-1 margin.
Rahall’s weak performance on the ballot is driven by negative job approval ratings. Fully 53% of voters disapprove of Congressman Rahall’s job performance, including more than one-third of Democrats.
Conducted October 7-8, the survey’s demographics reflect historical voter turnout data from the Secretary of State. Democrats made up 64% of survey respondents, with Republicans making up 26% of the sample. Likely voters not registered with either major party comprised the remainder.
Q: If the election for Congress were held today, who would you vote for: Evan Jenkins, Republican from Huntington or Nick Rahall, Democrat from Beckley?