Pennsylvania Governor Poll
October 26-27, 2014
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Gubernatorial Ballot

As the race for Governor of Pennsylvania draws to a close, Democratic challenger Tom Wolf leads incumbent Republican Governor Tom Corbett by 10% (50-40%).

Wolf continues to receive stronger backing from Democratic voters (77%) than Corbett does from Republicans (70%). Wolf also holds the advantage among Independents (42-31%).

Wolf’s support remains strongest in the Philadelphia/Southeast region (54-31%). He also leads in the Pittsburgh/Southwest (49-43%) and Scranton/Lehigh Valley (55-41%) regions. Corbett draws to a tie in the Northern Tier (44-44%), and leads in the South Central region (50-44%). 

Q: If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for: Tom Corbett, Republican or Tom Wolf, Democrat?

Campaign Communications

At this point in the race, voters are being inundated with campaign information, as evidenced by the 80% of voters who say they have seen, read, or heard something recently about both candidates for Governor. 45% of voters report that what they are hearing about Tom Wolf gives them a more favorable opinion of the York County Democrat, while 44% say it gives them a more unfavorable opinion.  Comparatively, Governor Corbett’s information flow is 33% more favorable and 50% more unfavorable.

Q: Have you seen, read, or heard anything recently about Tom Corbett?

Q: Has that information given you a more favorable or more unfavorable opinion of Tom Corbett?

Wolf’s only net negative information flow is in the South Central region (36% more favorable, 57% more unfavorable). Positive messaging seems to be working for Wolf among young voters (46% more favorable, 41% more unfavorable), while attacks are likely hurting Corbett with this group (29% more favorable, 56% more unfavorable). Both candidates face a negative information flow with Independent and women voters.

Q: Have you seen, read, or heard anything recently about Tom Wolf?

Q: Has that information given you a more favorable or more unfavorable opinion of Tom Wolf?

Candidate Images

As Election Day approaches, Pennsylvania voters’ perception of Governor Corbett has notably improved, approaching a 1-to-1 ratio at 44% favorable to 48% unfavorable.  Should Tom Wolf claim victory on Tuesday, the Governor-elect will start with a 53% favorable image with voters, exceeding that of the incumbent by 9%.

Full Results & Methodology

METHODOLOGY:
The sample size for the survey is 680 likely voters and the margin of error is +/-3.76%. Cell phone interviews were conducted using live operators and land line interviews were conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR). The survey was conducted October 26–27, 2014 by Harper Polling.  The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Harper Polling