Pennsylvania Statewide Poll
Republican Presidential Primary
September 9-10, 2015

Republican Presidential Primary Ballot


The Republican Presidential primary in Pennsylvania is essentially a two-way contest between Donald Trump (30%) and Ben Carson (27%). Jeb Bush (7%), Marco Rubio (7%) and Ted Cruz (6%) encompass a second tier of sorts followed by Rick Santorum, Scott Walker, Carly Fiorina, and John Kasich all at 3%. Among Tea Party voters (30% Carson, 29% Trump), self-identified Very Conservatives (32% Carson, 29% Trump) and Somewhat Conservatives (31% Carson, 26% Trump), Carson has a slight advantage with Trump close behind. Moderates choose Trump (32%), followed by Carson (16%) and Bush (11%).


Q: If the Republican primary election for President were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for: Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump, Scott Walker, Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, George Pataki, OR Rick Perry?

Presidential Primary

% of Vote

Bush

7%

Carson

27%

Cruz

6%

Paul

2%

Rubio

7%

Santorum

3%

Trump

30%

Walker

3%

Christie

1%

Fiorina

3%

Gilmore

0%

Graham

0%

Huckabee

1%

Jindal

0%

Kasich

3%

Pataki

0%

Perry

0%

Undecided

7%


Trump Reason

Most Pennsylvania likely voters who plan to vote for Donald Trump say they plan to do so because he is a “straight-talker who is not concerned with being politically correct” (40%) followed by “he is a political outsider who will not be influenced by special interests” (36%). A plurality of female Trump voters say it is because he is a “political outsider” while a majority of men cite that Trump is a “straight-talker” (51%). Among tea party voters, Trump’s “political outsider” image is a main selling point (45%). 

(Only Trump Voters)
Q: Which of the following statements comes closest to explaining why you are planning to vote for Donald Trump: He is a straight-talker who is not concerned with being politically correct, He has the right stance on immigration, He has a record of success as a businessman, OR He is a political outsider who will not be influenced by special interests?

Trump Second Choice

A plurality of Trump voters cite Ben Carson as their second choice (37%), followed by Ted Cruz (15%) and Jeb Bush (14%). Tea party (52% Carson, 27% Cruz), Very Conservative (42% Carson, 28% Cruz) and Somewhat Conservative (40% Carson, 17% Bush) Trump voters all say Carson would be their second choice.

(Only Trump voters)
Q: And who would be your second choice after Donald Trump?

Toomey Image 
Republican Primary Voters

Full Results & Methodology

METHODOLOGY:
The sample size for the survey is 369 likely Republican primary voters in Pennsylvania and the margin of error is +/-5.1%. Reponses were gathered through land line interviews conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR). The survey was conducted September 9-10, 2015 by Harper Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Harper Polling