Pennsylvania Statewide Poll 
March 1-2, 2016

Electoral Environment

Direction of Pennsylvania

Pessimism about the direction of Pennsylvania has continued to increase since late 2014, and two-thirds of likely voters now say things in Pennsylvania are on the wrong track (19% right direction, 10/2014: 33% right/58% wrong). Majorities of voters of all political parties agree (Republicans: 9%/81%, Democrats: 30%/52%, Independents: 12%/71%). 

Q: Would you say that things in Pennsylvania are going in the right direction, or are they on the wrong track?

Governor Wolf 

Governor Tom Wolf’s image has held fairly steady since September 2015, and he now has a favorability margin of +2% (49% favorable/47% unfavorable).

Wolf Image

10/26/14

5/7/15

9/10/15

3/1/2016

Favorable

53%

49%

49%

49%

Unfavorable

39%

43%

46%

47%

He is still viewed very favorably in the Philadelphia/Southeast region of the state (71% favorable/21% unfavorable), but majorities of voters in all other regions of the state have an unfavorable opinion of the Governor (Northern Tier: 25%/67%, Pittsburgh/Southwest: 45%/52%, Scranton/Lehigh Valley: 42%/53%, South Central: 35%/65%). 

The Race for Senate

Candidate Images

Incumbent Senator Pat Toomey continues to have a favorable image among likely voters (49%/40%, 9/15: 49%/38%) and a substantial name identification advantage over his potential challengers (11% not sure). Although a plurality of voters still have a somewhat favorable opinion of him (29%), higher portions of voters have a very favorable (20%, 9/15: 16%) and very unfavorable opinion (20%, 9/15: 15%), indicating that voters are forming more solid opinions. His image remains very strong among Republicans (68%/19%) and both self-identified Very Conservatives (82%/11%) and Somewhat Conservatives (63%/28%), but is now a net negative among Independents (43%/46%, 9/15: 49%/42%) and continues to drop among Democrats (34%/56%, 9/15: 35%/51%). 

Katie McGinty has improved her favorability rating, but still shows a net negative image among likely voters (29%/31%/40%; 9/15: 25%/30%/44%), largely resulting from low name identification. Her image improves substantially in the Philadelphia/Southeast (35%/23%) region of the state. 

Joe Sestak has higher name identification than McGinty and now has a net favorable image among likely general election voters (34%/33%/33%). Independents have a net unfavorable opinion of Sestak (29%/39%), as do men (34%/38%). 


John Fetterman is the least known of the Democratic candidates (57% not sure) and has a net negative image (19%/23%). His image improves in the Pittsburgh/Southwest region (30%/25%) and among Liberals (Somewhat: 26%/22%, Very: 22%/20%).

 

Ballot Tests

Senator Toomey continues to lead Democrat Joe Sestak. He receives stronger support from Republicans (82% Toomey-10% Sestak) than Sestak does from Democrats (14-72%). Toomey now trails Sestak among women (40-46%, 9/15: 42-41%) but continues to earn a majority of the vote among men (54-35%, 9/15: 53-34%). Among Independents, Toomey leads (48-28%), while Sestak leads among Moderates (35-45%). Sestak has expanded his lead in Philadelphia/Southeast (29-57%, 9/15: 36-48%) and now leads in Pittsburgh/Southwest (42-45%, 9/15: 55-36%). Toomey continues to hold strong advantages in the Northern Tier (66-18%, 9/15: 52-28%, Scranton/LV: 58-33%, 9/15: 42-41%) and South Central (64-28%, 9/15: 57-27%) regions of the state.

Toomey vs. Sestak

9/10/15

3/1/2016

Pat Toomey

47%

47%

Joe Sestak

37%

41%

Undecided

15%

13%

Q: If the election for United States Senate were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for: Pat Toomey, Republican or Joe Sestak, Democrat?

The race looks very similar for Toomey against Katie McGinty. Toomey’s advantage over McGinty has narrowed from +14% to +8%. McGinty appears to have converted 5% of undecided voters to supporters since September. Toomey receives stronger party support (Republicans: 83 Toomey-9% McGinty) than McGinty (Democrats: 16-70%) and leads among Independents (47-27%). The gender gap becomes more pronounced in a McGinty vs. Toomey matchup (women: 39-48%, men: 57-30%).

Toomey vs. McGinty

9/10/15

3/1/2016

Pat Toomey

48%

47%

Katie McGinty

34%

39%

Undecided

18%

13%

Q: If the election for United States Senate were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for: Pat Toomey, Republican or Katie McGinty, Democrat?

Against John Fetterman, Toomey has his strongest advantage among Independents (48-23%) and is able to narrow the Democratic advantage among Moderates (32-40%). Fetterman performs the strongest of the potential Democratic candidates in his home region of Pittsburgh (40-46%). 

Q: If the election for United States Senate were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for: Pat Toomey, Republican or John Fetterman, Democrat?

The Race for President

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump (45-40%), Marco Rubio (46-40%) and Ted Cruz (48-37%) in hypothetical general election matchups. Ted Cruz performs the worst in Pennsylvania against the Democratic frontrunner. Clinton leads all three Republican candidates tested in the Philadelphia/Southeast and Pittsburgh/Southwest regions of the state, while the Republicans lead in the Northern Tier, Scranton/Lehigh Valley and South Central regions. Rubio receives the strongest support from Republican voters (73%, Trump: 67%, Cruz: 71%). Both Trump (30% Clinton-46% Trump) and Rubio (27-40%) lead Clinton among Independents, while Cruz trails (36-35%). Very Conservatives are most supportive of Cruz (14-78%, Rubio: 14-73%, Trump: 17-68%) while Somewhat Conservatives are strongest in support of Trump (19-65%, Rubio: 21-62%, Cruz: 23-59%).

Q: If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for: Hillary Clinton, Democrat or Donald Trump, Republican?
Q: If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for: Hillary Clinton, Democrat or Marco Rubio, Republican?
Q: If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for: Hillary Clinton, Democrat or Ted Cruz, Republican?

Full Results & Methodology

METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 662 likely voters in Pennsylvania and the margin of error is +/-3.75%. Reponses were gathered through land line interviews conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR). The survey was conducted March 1-2, 2016 by Harper Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Harper Polling