Pennsylvania Statewide Poll
Republican and Democratic Primaries
March 1-2, 2016
Democratic Primary
Senate Race
Joe Sestak continues to have the strongest image of the three Senate candidates among likely Democratic primary voters (50% favorable/26% unfavorable/24% not sure) and the highest name identification. However, his margin of favorability has narrowed somewhat since January (54%/20%/26%). His image continues to be strongest in the Philadelphia/Southeast (54%/24%, 1/22: 59%/22%) and Scranton/Lehigh Valley (57%/18%, 1/22: 61%/17%) regions of the state. His image is fairly stable among Somewhat Liberal voters (58%/21%, 1/22: 55%/20%) but has weakened among Very Liberals (48%/29%, 1/22: 68%/17%).
Katie McGinty’s margin of favorability has also narrowed a bit, but she still has a solid favorable image (45%/22%/33%, 1/22: 49%/19%/33%). Her hard name identification has not increased since January. McGinty has improved her image in her home region of Philadelphia/Southeast (47%/19%, 1/22: 40%/22%).
John Fetterman has improved his name identification, but with it his favorability margin has narrowed from +7% (27%/20%/53%) to +2% (28%/26%/46%). His image continues to be substantially stronger in the Pittsburgh/Southwest region (38%/30%). A similar pattern appears among Very Liberals (29%/29%, 1/22: 34%/10%) and younger voters (25%/21%, 1/22: 26%/14%), who represented solid pockets of support for Fetterman in our January survey.
Joe Sestak continues to lead the Democratic primary race for Senate, earning 33% of the vote. Katie McGinty has fallen into a more distant second (17%), followed by John Fetterman (15%). Joe Vodvarka is a distant fourth, and about a third of the electorate remains undecided. Sestak now leads among Somewhat Liberal voters (45%, Fetterman 17%; 1/22: 32% McGinty, 30% Sestak) while Fetterman narrows Sestak’s advantage to 3% among Very Liberal voters (29-26%, 1/22: 40% Sestak, 28% McGinty). Joe Sestak now has solid advantages in all regions of the state, with the exception of Pittsburgh/Southwest, where Fetterman leads (27%, McGinty 21%, 1/22: 27% Sestak, 27% McGinty). Women split between Sestak (21%) and McGinty (21%) while Sestak earns a near-majority of men (47%).
| 1/22/16 | 3/1/2016 |
Vodvarka | N/A | 4% |
Fetterman | 11% | 15% |
Sestak | 33% | 33% |
McGinty | 28% | 17% |
Undecided | 28% | 32% |
Q: If the Democratic primary election for United States Senate were held today, who would you vote for: Joseph Vodvarka, John Fetterman, Joe Sestak, or Katie McGinty?
Presidential Race
Hillary Clinton (57%) holds a commanding lead over Bernie Sanders (27%) in the Democratic primary race. She has expanded her leads among Moderates (59-19%, 1/22: 54-24%), Somewhat Liberal voters (64-23%, 1/22: 59-28%) and Very Liberal voters (52-39%, 1/22: 49-45%). Clinton now leads among 18-39 year old voters (46-33%, 1/22: 40-41%), continues to lead among women (68-17%, 1/22: 66-18%) and extends her lead among men (44-37%, 1/22: 43-40%).
| 1/22/16 | 3/1/2016 |
Clinton | 56% | 57% |
Sanders | 28% | 27% |
O’Malley | 4% | N/A |
Undecided | 13% | 16% |
Q: If the Democratic primary election for President were held today, who would you vote for: Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders?
A full 78% majority of likely Democratic primary voters say it is “very important that Democrats nominate a candidate who can beat Donald Trump”. By comparison, 84% of likely Republican voters say it is “very important to pick a candidate “who can beat Hillary Clinton.”
Q: How important is it that Democrats nominate a candidate who can beat Donald Trump?
Republican Primary
In the race for the Republican nomination for President, Donald Trump leads in Pennsylvania with more than a third of the vote (36%), followed by Marco Rubio (19%) and Ted Cruz (17%). Trump leads in all regions of the state, with Rubio making inroads in the Philadelphia/Southeast region (27%), Scranton/Lehigh Valley (21%), Cruz gaining in the Northern Tier (27%), and Kasich tying with Cruz for second in the Pittsburgh/Southwest region (22%). Trump also has the advantage among Very Conservatives (30%), Somewhat Conservatives (38%) and Moderates (45%). Very Conservative voters choose Cruz second (23%), while Somewhat Conservatives (22%) and Moderates (21%) choose Rubio.
Q: If the Republican primary election for President were held today, who would you vote for: Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, OR Donald Trump?
Eighty-four percent of likely Republican primary voters say it is “very important that Republicans nominate a candidate who can beat Hillary Clinton.” By comparison, 78% of likely Democratic voters say it is “very important” to pick a candidate “who can beat Donald Trump.”
Q: How important is it that Republicans nominate a candidate who can beat Hillary Clinton?
Wall Street vs. Growth of Government
A substantial 58% majority of likely Democratic primary voters say “abuse of power on Wall Street” is holding our country back more than “growth of government and regulations” (25%). This sentiment increases moving left along the ideological spectrum (Moderate: 59%, Somewhat Liberal: 64%, Very Liberal: 68%).
Q: What do you think is holding our country back more: abuse of power on Wall Street OR growth of government and regulations?
Three-in-four likely Republican primary voters say “growth of government and regulations” (75%) is holding our country back more than “abuse of power on Wall Street” (17%). This opinion is the exact opposite of Democratic primary voters on this topic. Very Conservatives (83%) and Somewhat Conservatives (81%) overwhelmingly say growth of government is more of a problem, while Moderates narrowly say “abuse of power on Wall street” (48-45%).
Full Results & Methodology
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 347 likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania and the margin of error is +/-5.26%. Reponses were gathered through land line interviews conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR). The survey was conducted March 1-2, 2016 by Harper Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 353 likely Republican primary voters in Pennsylvania and the margin of error is +/-5.22%. Reponses were gathered through land line interviews conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR). The survey was conducted March 1-2, 2016 by Harper Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.