Pennsylvania Statewide Poll
Democratic Primary 
September 9-10, 2015

Ballot Tests

Democratic Primary Senate Ballot

Joe Sestak leads Katie McGinty by 10% on the Democratic primary ballot for Senate. He leads in all regions of the state (Northern Tier: 42-32%, Philadelphia/Southeast: 47-22%, South Central: 37-35%) with the exception of Pittsburgh/Southwest (35-38%), where he trails, and Scranton/Lehigh Valley (33-33%) where he is tied with McGinty. Sestak leads among both Moderates (39-33%) and Somewhat Liberal (41-33%) voters and also has an advantage among both women (35-31%) and men (47-29%).

Q: If the Democratic primary election for United States Senate were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for: Katie McGinty or Joe Sestak?

Democratic Primary Presidential Ballot

Q: If the Democratic primary election for President were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for: Joe Biden, Lincoln Chafee, Hillary Clinton, Martin O’Malley, Bernie Sanders, OR Jim Webb?

Senate 2016 Candidate Images

Katie McGinty

Among likely Democratic primary voters, Katie McGinty’s image is a net positive (35% favorable, 26% unfavorable, 39% not sure). She has a comparable image among self-identified Moderate voters (35%/28%) while a majority of Somewhat Liberal voters do not have an opinion about McGinty (29%/19%/51% not sure). 

Joe Sestak

Joe Sestak’s favorability is approaching a majority (46% favorable, 26% unfavorable) and he has better hard name identification than McGinty (28% not sure). His image is particularly strong in the Philadelphia/Southeast region of the state (57%/20%/23%) as well as among Somewhat Liberal voters (54%/13%). His image is also a solid net positive among Moderates (42%/29%).

Wolf & Casey Images

Full Results & Methodology

METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 304 likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania and the margin of error is +/-5.62%. Reponses were gathered through land line interviews conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR). The survey was conducted September 9-10, 2015 by Harper Polling. The demographic profile of the survey sample is as follows: Female 53%, Male 47%; White 83%, African-American 11%, Something else 5%. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Harper Polling