Oregon Statewide Poll

Democrats hold a 3% lead over Republicans on the generic ballot for United States Senate, 45-42%.  Underlying the results is a significant gender gap, as women prefer the generic Democratic candidate 52-37% while men prefer the generic Republican candidate 48-37%.

Q. In an election for U.S. Senate, would you generally prefer to vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?

Republicans lead in the state’s secondary media markets of Eugene (53-36%) and Medford-Klamath Falls (49-42%).  Democrats lead in the dominate media market of Portland (49-35%).

Senate Ballots

Q. In an election for United States Senate, who would you most likely vote for:  Democrat Jeff Merkley or Republican Jason Conger?

Senator Jeff Merkley holds leads of 7% and 12% over his respective challengers, Jason Conger and Monica Wehby.  Both Conger and Wehby lead in the Eugene media market and Merkley holds significant leads of 18% and 20% over both Republican opponents in the Portland media market.

Q. In an election for United States Senate, who would you most likely vote for:  Democrat Jeff Merkley or Republican Monica Wehby?

Governor Ballot

In the race for Governor,Democratic incumbent John Kitzhaber holds a narrow 3% lead over Republican challenger Dennis Richardson, 46-43%.  Richardson leads 45-36% among independent voters and 47-43% among men.  Kitzhaber leads 50-39% among women and 51-38% in the Portland market.

Q. In an election for Governor, who would you most likely vote for:  Democrat John Kitzhaber or Republican Dennis Richardson?

Candidate Images

All the three Republican challengers have relatively low name identification statewide: Conger at 27%, Wehby at 21% and Richardson at 31%.

Job Approvals

President Obama’s job approval in Oregon is 41% approve to 50% disapprove, which is comparable to the national average. 

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jeff Merkley is handling his job as Senator?

Obamacare Approval

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of President Obama’s new health care law known as Obamacare?

Gay Marriage Referendum

Likely voters in Oregon support a voter referendum to legalize gay marriage by a 44-39% margin; 17% are undecided.  There is a generational divide on the issue.  Voters 18-to-49 years old support the referendum 53-35% while voters 65 years of age or older narrowly oppose it 37-35%.  Independents are split with 38% in support and 38% in opposition.

Q. Do you support or oppose a voter referendum that would legalize gay marriage in Oregon?

Cover Oregon

The survey asked voters to assign blame for the state’s troubled health care exchange, Cover Oregon.  Forty percent blame Oracle, the technical contractor for the program, 22% blame Obamacare, 21% blame Governor Kitzhaber and 9% blame Republicans in the state legislature.

Q. As you may know, Oregon’s new health care exchange, Cover Oregon, has been widely criticized for its ongoing problems.  Who do you blame most for the problems concerning Cover Oregon: Governor John Kitzhaber, Republicans in the state legislature, Obamacare or Oracle, the technical contractor for the program?

There is some notable difference of opinion based on party affiliation.  Republicans blame Obamacare at 40%, followed by Governor Kitzhaber at 35% and Oracle at 17%.  Democrats predominantly blame Oracle at 58%, followed by Republicans in the state legislature at 16%.

The sample size for the survey is 670 likely voters taken from a listed sample of voters with an established propensity to vote in mid-term elections.  The margin of error is +/- 3.91%.  The Interactive Voice Response (IVR) automated telephone survey was conducted April 1-2, 2014 by Harper Polling.  The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Harper Polling