Oklahoma Senate Primary Poll

In the race for the Republican nomination to fill the seat of Senator Tom Coburn, Congressman James Lankford leads his two competitors by 36%.  Lankford’s advantage is driven by his popularity in the Oklahoma City media market where he leads House Speaker T.W. Shannon 77-9%.

In the state's other large media market Tulsa, Shannon trails by just 3%.  In Tulsa, Lankford and Shannon have matching 33-10% favorable-to-unfavorable images ratings.  Lankford’s support on the ballot is stronger among tea party voters (55%) than non-tea party voters (48%).

Q. In a primary election for U.S. Senate, which of the following Republicans would you most likely support: James Lankford, T.W. Shannon, or James Weger?

The intensity of support for Lankford in the Oklahoma media market is the key finding of the survey.  However, the Congressman’s advantage is likely exaggerated by his 19% higher hard-name identification than Shannon statewide.  Shannon’s image among tea party voters is 40-12% and 28-21% among non-tea party voters.

As someone who has not explicitly ruled out a run and is also a close ally of Shannon, former Congressman J.C. Watts is a factor in the race one way or another.  Watts has an eye-popping +61% image among Republican primary voters.  His image among self-identified “very conservative” voters (76-8%) and “moderate” voters (75-11%) are notably similar.

On a ballot test that includes Watts, the former Congressman claims the lead over Lankford by a narrow 3%.  In the Oklahoma City market, Lankford leads 58-28% while Watts leads 53-29% in Tulsa. 

Q. In a primary election for U.S. Senate, which of the following Republicans would you most likely support: J.C. Watts, James Lankford, T.W. Shannon, or James Weger?

Candidate Images

Republican Presidential Ballot 2016

Q. If the 2016 Republican Presidential primary election were held today, who would you most likely support: Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Rick Santorum or Scott Walker?

Government Shutdown

Voters were asked whether they approved of the government shutdown over Obamacare.  Sixty-eight percent approve while 21% disapprove.  However, opinion is split among tea party voters and non-tea party voters.  Eighty-three percent of tea party voters approve of the shutdown while 65% of non-tea party voters disapprove.


Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the Republican-led government shutdown in October over Obamacare?

Tea Party

Q. Would you be more likely to support a Republican candidate who identifies with the Tea Party or a Republican candidate who does not identify with the Tea Party?

Q. Do you support the goals and ideals of the Tea Party?

METHODOLOGY:
The sample size for the survey is 627 likely 2014 primary voters and the margin of error is +/- 3.91%.  The Interactive Voice Response (IVR) automated telephone survey was conducted January 30-February 1, 2014 by Harper Polling.  The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.