North Carolina Senate Poll
October 28-30, 2014

Senate Ballot

With Election Day upon us, Republican challenger Thom Tillis leads Democratic Senator Kay Hagan 46-44% in a very close race for the United State Senate.

Q: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for: Thom Tillis, Republican, Kay Hagan, Democrat or Sean Haugh, Libertarian?

Tillis receives stronger support from Republican voters (80%) than Hagan does from Democratic voters (76%). Tillis is leading Hagan among independent voters, 44-34%. The two candidates are polarizing figures with the electorate, as Kay Hagan’s image stands at 49% favorable to 48% unfavorable and Tillis’ image is 47% favorable to 49% unfavorable.  After a long bruising campaign, few voters remain on the fence about the candidates.

Tillis vs. Hagan

Q: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for: Thom Tillis, Republican, or Kay Hagan, Democrat?

Candidate Images

Campaign Communications 

Eighty-six percent of voters in North Carolina say they have seen, read, or heard something recently about Thom Tillis, while 88% say the same about Kay Hagan. Constant campaign communication has resulted in a net negative information flow for both candidates. 52% of voters say that what they have heard about Hagan has given them a more unfavorable opinion of the Senator. This figure is a comparable 51% for Tillis. Hagan has a more negative information flow among Independents (58% more unfavorable) than Tillis (51% more unfavorable). Both candidates face a negative flow of information among women, with Tillis at 53% more unfavorable and Hagan at 52% more unfavorable.

Q: Have you seen, read, or heard anything recently about Thom Tillis?
Q: Has that information given you a more favorable or more unfavorable opinion of Thom Tillis?
Q: Have you seen, read, or heard anything recently about Kay Hagan?
Q: Has that information given you a more favorable or more unfavorable opinion of Kay Hagan?

Thom Tillis has crept ahead of Kay Hagan in the closing days of the campaign. However, the race remains exceedingly close.  The candidates have comparable image ratings, and the flow of campaign information shows that neither candidate has truly gained control of the race.

METHODOLOGY:
The sample size for the survey is 511 likely voters and the margin of error is +/-4.34%. The Interactive Voice Response (IVR) automated telephone survey was conducted October 28–30, 2014 by Harper Polling.  The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.