New York Congressional District 21 Poll
‚ÄčOctober 27-28, 2014

Congressional Ballot

With less than a week remaining until Election Day, Republican Elise Stefanik has extended her 8% September lead over Democrat Aaron Woolf to 14% (47-33%).

Stefanik has grown her lead since September in the Albany media market from +19% to +24% and has pulled away in Watertown from a tie to a 48-34% advantage. Stefanik has also picked up points from women, transitioning from trailing Woolf by 3% (38-41%) to leading him by 5% (41-36%). 

Q: If the election for Congress were held today, who would you vote for: Elise Stefanik, Republican, Conservative, and Independence Party; Aaron Woolf, Democratic and Working Families Party, OR Matt Funiciello, Green Party?

Republican support for Stefanik has increased (from 68% to 70%), while Woolf has lost ground with Democrats (from 68% to 60%). Stefanik is taking 21% of the Democratic vote from Woolf, with Green party candidate Matt Funiciello earning 14% among Democrats. Support for Funiciello has doubled among Democrats (from 7% to 14%) and almost tripled among Independents (from 9% to 25%). However, customarily, third party candidates receive stronger support in polling than they do on the ballot.

Candidate Images

No candidate is unpopular in this election. In fact, all three candidates have positive image ratings and have improved their images since September. 

Stefanik’s image is outstanding at 54% favorable to 38% unfavorable. She has bolstered her image among Republicans, improving from 62% favorable to 77% favorable, and has improved her very favorable rating from 32% to 51%. 
Woolf has had a slight improvement in his image from +4% (41% favorable, 37% unfavorable) to +5% (48% favorable, 43% unfavorable). Among Democrats, his favorability has remained stagnant (from 68% to 67%) and his unfavorable numbers have increased from 17% to 25%. 
Funiciello has shown the most overall improvement, increasing his hard name identification from 48% to 71% and his favorability margin from -8% (20% favorable, 28% unfavorable) to +5% (38% favorable, 33% unfavorable).

By strengthening her party support and taking the lead among women and in the Watertown media market, Elise Stefanik has improved her advantage over Democrat Aaron Woolf to 47-33%, and is poised for victory on Tuesday.

Campaign Communications

Q: Have you seen, read, or heard anything recently about Elise Stefanik?

Q: Has that information given you a more favorable or more unfavorable opinion of Elise Stefanik?

Q: Have you seen, read, or heard anything recently about Aaron Woolf?

Q: Has that information given you a more favorable or more unfavorable opinion of Aaron Woolf?

METHODOLOGY:
The sample size for the survey is 560 likely voters and the margin of error is +/-4.14%. The Interactive Voice Response (IVR) automated telephone survey was conducted October 27–28, 2014 by Harper Polling.  The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Harper Polling