New York CD-21 GOP Primary Poll
June 17-18, 2014

TO:                        Interested Parties
FROM:                   Brock McCleary, President
DATE:                    June 19, 2014
RE:                        Key Poll Findings – New York CD-21 Republican Primary Election

Former Bush White House aide Elise Stefanik leads by 45-37% over investment banker and 2012 GOP nominee Matt Doheny in the race for the Republican nomination in New York’s 21st congressional district.   Stefanik’s image with primary voters stands at 49% favorable to 29% unfavorable.

Doheny’s image reflects the impact of spending by outside groups against him (39% favorable to 41% unfavorable).  Of the 85% of voters who are receiving information about Doheny, 45% say it is giving them a more unfavorable opinion of him; 35% say favorable.

Conversely, of the 82% who are receiving information about Stefanik, 48% say it is giving them a more favorable opinion of her; 37% say unfavorable.

Stefanik leads by similar numbers in the two largest media markets of Albany (44-38%) and Watertown (44-39%).  Stefanik leads among both tea party (51-38%) and non-tea party voters (41-38%).

Ballot Test

Q: If the Republican primary election for Congress were held today, who would you vote for: Matt Doheny or Elise Stefanik?

Candidate Images

Campaign Communications

Q: Have you seen, read or heard anything recently about Matt Doheny?
('Yes' respondents only from previous question)
Q: Has that information given you a more favorable or more unfavorable opinion of Matt Doheny?

Q: Have you seen, read or heard anything recently about Elise Stefanik?

('Yes' respondents only from previous question)
Q: Has that information given you a more favorable or more unfavorable opinion of Elise Stefanik?

Ideology

Q: Do you support the goals and ideals of the Tea Party?

METHODOLOGY:
The sample size for the survey is 498 likely Republican primary voters and the margin of error is +/-4.39.  The Interactive Voice Response (IVR) automated telephone survey was conducted June 17-18, 2014 by Harper Polling.  The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.