New York CD-21 General Election Poll
September 25-29, 2014

TO:                         Interested Parties
FROM:                  Brock McCleary, President 
DATE:                    October 1, 2014
RE:                          Key Poll Findings – New York Congressional District 21 Poll

In the race to replace retiring Democratic Congressman Bill Owens in New York’s 21st Congressional District, Republican Elise Stefanik leads Democrat Aaron Woolf 45-37%. 

Generic Congressional Ballot

Just 25% of voters say things in the country are going in the right direction, compared to 70% who say things are on the wrong track. Republicans appear to benefit from this on the generic Congressional ballot, where they lead Democrats 47-38%. Women (43-39%) and men (52-37%) both would prefer to vote for a Republican candidate, although men are stronger in their preference. Independents choose a Republican (46-28%) while Moderates choose a Democrat (49-35%). 

Q: In an election for Congress, would you generally prefer to vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?

 Candidate Images

Elise Stefanik’s favorability rating is at +7% (46% favorable, 39% unfavorable). She has higher name identification than Woolf, who is also viewed favorably by voters (41% favorable, 37% unfavorable). Women have a more favorable opinion of Woolf (44% favorable, 31% unfavorable) than Stefanik (41% favorable, 43% unfavorable) while men view Stefanik more favorably (52% favorable, 37% unfavorable) than Woolf (37% favorable, 42% unfavorable).

Independents have a favorable view of Stefanik (46-41%) but an unfavorable view of Woolf (36-42%) while Moderates have a favorable view of Woolf (49-35%) but view Stefanik unfavorably (45-47%). Woolf has a stronger image with Democrats (68-17%) than Stefanik does among Republicans (62-25%).  

Congressional Ballot

Stefanik leads Woolf by 8 points (45-37%) with 8% of voters choosing the Green Party candidate Matt Funiciello and 10% undecided. Many of the patterns from the image tests return on the ballot, with men voting for Stefanik (53-32%) while women side slightly with Woolf (41-38%).

Q: If the election for Congress were held today, who would you vote for: Elise Stefanik, Republican, Conservative, and Independence Party; Aaron Woolf, Democratic and Working Families Party, OR Matt Funiciello, Green Party?

The candidates receive equalizing support from their parties at 68%. Stefanik’s 19 point lead among Independents (49-30%) is driving her lead over Woolf.  His advantage over Stefanik among Moderates is smaller at 11 points (45-34%), with Funiciello earning 12%. 

ISIS

We also asked voters to share their opinion about President Obama’s actions against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria.

An overwhelming majority approve of this development, 74-16% and this sentiment holds across parties, genders and ideologies.


President Obama’s image stands at 42% favorable to 55% unfavorable. A plurality of voters (43%) have a very unfavorable opinion of the President. 

Q: President Obama has recently escalated America’s military engagement in the Middle East with airstrikes in Iraq and Syria, specifically targeting the Islamic militant group known as ISIS. Do you approve or disapprove of this U.S. military action?

METHODOLOGY:
The sample size for the survey is 674 likely voters and the margin of error is +/-3.76%. The Interactive Voice Response (IVR) automated telephone survey was conducted September 25-29, 2014 by Harper Polling.  The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Harper Polling