New Hampshire Republican Primary Poll

February 1-2, 2016

Presidential Primary Ballot 

Donald Trump maintains a strong lead in New Hampshire, earning 31% of the vote on the Presidential Republican Primary ballot test. Jeb Bush (14%) leads the field in the race for second place, followed by John Kasich (12%) and more distantly by Marco Rubio (10%), Ted Cruz (9%) and Chris Christie (6%). Note: The results from night two of our survey were largely unchanged from pre-Iowa Caucus results on Monday night.

Trump’s advantage increases among likely voters who self-affiliate with the Republican Party (34%, Bush 16%). He leads John Kasich among likely independent primary voters (23%, Kasich 16%, Rubio 12%, Bush 11%) while Trump (20%) and Fiorina (20%) tie among Democrats who say they are likely to vote in the Republican primary.

Although Trump leads in every region of the state, Jeb Bush increases his proportion of the vote substantially in the Boston (18%) and Portland-Auburn (21%) media markets. Jeb Bush (15%) and Marco Rubio (15%) tie for second in the Burlington- Plattsburgh market and Kasich pulls into second in Hillsborough County (18%) and Rockingham County (11%). Trump has comparable leads among both women (28%, Bush 18%) and men (32%, Kasich 14%).

While Trump leads among the three older age brackets (40-54: 39%, 55-65: 31%, 66+: 26%), Jeb Bush shows strength among younger voters (18-39: 25%-26% Trump). Among self-identified Very Conservative voters, Trump leads (32%) followed by Ted Cruz (18%) and Jeb Bush (16%). He also leads among Somewhat Conservatives (35%) followed by Jeb Bush (14%, Rubio 13%). John Kasich leads Trump among Moderates (25-24%, Bush 14%). 

Note: Gilmore, Huckabee and Santorum are not shown in the chart below as they earned 0% of the vote.

Candidate Images

Of the candidates, only Donald Trump (51% favorable/47% unfavorable) has a net favorable image rating among likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire. John Kasich (45%/50%) and Jeb Bush (45%/50%) are the only other candidates near 50% favorability and have identical images. Trump’s image advantage is even more obvious when we compare the very favorable ratings. A full 37% plurality of likely voters say they have a very favorable opinion of Donald Trump. This number falls to 18% and 15% for Kasich and Bush, respectively.

Results & Methodology


The sample size for the survey is 425 likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire and the margin of error is +/-4.75%. Reponses were gathered through land line interviews conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR). The survey was conducted February 1-2, 2016 by Harper Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding. The survey began before Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul withdrew from the race.

Harper Polling