Nevada Statewide Poll
July 26-29, 2014

TO:                       Interested Parties
FROM:                Brock McCleary, President 
DATE:                  July 31, 2014
RE:                       Key Poll Findings – Nevada Poll

The Race for Governor

Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval holds a commanding 22% lead over Democratic challenger Bob Goodman (56-34%).  Likely voters have a decidedly favorable opinion of the Governor (58% favorable, 30% unfavorable).

Among Hispanic voters, Sandoval leads 54-39%.  Goodman suffers from low name identification with only 38% having heard of the Democrat.  As a result, he receives only 60% of the vote among Democrats whereas Sandoval garners 84% of the Republican vote.

Reid vs. Sandoval 2016

In a hypothetical matchup for U.S. Senate in 2016, Governor Sandoval leads Senator Harry Reid by 10% (53-43%).  Sandoval leads 65-28% among independent voters and 52-43% among self-identified “moderate” voters.

Fifty-five percent of likely voters hold an unfavorable opinion of Senator Reid while 41% hold a favorable opinion.  The deficit is -10% among women (43% favorable, 53% unfavorable) and -19% among men (39% favorable, 58% unfavorable).

The Race for President 2016

In three hypothetical matchups for President in 2016, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads three Republican challengers.  Kentucky Senator Rand Paul trails Clinton by just 3% (47-44%) while former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez trail Clinton by 5% and 13% respectively.

Clinton leads Paul by 6% among women (49-43%) and draws even among men (45-46%).  However, Paul leads 52-35% among independent voters. Paul garners stronger support than Bush among Republicans (79% for Paul, 76% for Bush) and conservative voters (75% for Paul, 64% for Bush).

Ballot Initiatives

The ‘margin tax’ on the ballot in November is opposed by 49% of likely voters; 40% support the tax.  The measure is politically polarizing with 78% of Republicans opposed and 69% of Democrats in support.  Women are split with 44% in support and 43% opposed.  Men are strident in their opposition to the initiative (35% support, 55% opposed).

The survey also tested two potential ballot initiatives in Nevada.  Voters are virtually deadlocked on both.  First, 45% of likely voters (for 2014) support an initiative to legalize same-sex marriage while 47% are opposed. Second, 46% support legalizing private possession of up to one ounce of marijuana; 47% are opposed.

Nevada Governor Ballot Test

Q: If the election for Governor were held today, who would you most likely vote for: Bob Goodman, Democrat or Brian Sandoval, Republican?

Hypothetical Senate: Reid vs. Sandoval

Q: In a hypothetical election for United States Senate, who would you most likely vote for: Harry Reid, Democrat or Brian Sandoval, Republican?

Hypothetical President 2016: Clinton vs. Bush

Q: In a hypothetical election for President, who would you most likely vote for: Hillary Clinton, Democrat or Jeb Bush, Republican?

Hypothetical President 2016: Clinton vs. Paul

Q: In a hypothetical election for President, who would you most likely vote for: Hillary Clinton, Democrat or Rand Paul, Republican?

Hypothetical President 2016: Clinton vs. Martinez

Q: In a hypothetical election for President, who would you most likely vote for: Hillary Clinton, Democrat or Susana Martinez, Republican?

Images

Ballot Initiatives

Q: Do you support or oppose the ballot question called the ‘Education Initiative’ which would implement an additional two percent ‘margin’ tax on businesses in Nevada with all tax revenues being used to fund public K through 12 education?

Q: Would you support or oppose a ballot initiative that would legalize same-sex marriage?

Q: Would you support or oppose a ballot initiative that would make private possession of up to one ounce of marijuana legal for adults 21 years of age and older?

Obama Job Approval

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

METHODOLOGY:
The sample size for the survey is 602 likely voters and the margin of error is +/-3.99%. The Interactive Voice Response (IVR) automated telephone survey was conducted July 26-29, 2014 by Harper Polling.  The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Harper Polling