Michigan Statewide Poll
January 7-8, 2014


To:                   Conservative Intel

From:              Brock McCleary, Harper Polling
Date:                January 9, 2014
Re:                   Key Findings – Michigan Poll

Two key factors are driving Republicans’ best hope at winning a U.S. Senate seat since Spencer Abraham defeated Bob Carr in 1994.  First, former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land starts the election year with a 13% name identification advantage over Congressman Gary Peters as well as an overall more favorable image with voters.

Land is view favorably by 32% of voters and unfavorably by 18%; Peters’ image is an evenly split 18-18%.  Another key difference in the candidates’ images is Land’s 49% favorable rating among Republicans compared with Peters’ 29% among Democrats.

The second key factor driving Land’s early lead is a set of independent voters in the state who are trending toward Republicans.  On the generic Senate ballot, Democrats lead as expected but only by a single point.  This is fueled by independents who give Republicans a 34-27% lead.

On the ballot between Land and Peters, independents choose Land 41-29%, although a significant 31% remain undecided.  Peters gets the support of 77% of Democrats compared to Land’s 86% support among Republicans.

However, when it comes to the potential 2016 match-ups for President, independents lose their partisan tilt.  New Jersey Governor Chris Christie trails former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by 2%, but leads slightly among independents 34-30%.  The remaining three Republican challengers are either tied with or trailing Clinton among independents.

U.S. Senate 2014


Q:
In an election for U.S. Senate, would you generally prefer to vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?


Q:
In the election for U.S. Senate, who would you most likely vote for: Terri Lynn Land, Republican or Gary Peters, Democrat?


Governor
2014

Q: In an election for Governor, would you generally prefer to vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?


Q:
In the election for Governor, who would you most likely vote for: Rick Snyder, Republican or Mark Schauer, Democrat?


President 2016

Q: If the 2016 Republican Presidential primary election were held today, who would you most likely support: Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Rick Santorum or Scott Walker?


Q:
In an election for President in 2016, who would you most likely vote for: Hillary Clinton, Democrat or Chris Christie, Republican?


Q:
In an election for President in 2016, who would you most likely vote for: Hillary Clinton, Democrat or Ted Cruz, Republican?


Q:
In an election for President in 2016, who would you most likely vote for: Hillary Clinton, Democrat or Rand Paul, Republican?


Q:
In an election for President in 2016, who would you most likely vote for: Hillary Clinton, Democrat or Paul Ryan, Republican?


The Rest

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of President Obama’s new health care law known as Obamacare?


Q:
Do you support or oppose selling the art at the Detroit Art Museum to help the city’s pension and other debt obligations?


Q:
Do you expect the Detroit Tigers baseball team to get to the World Series in 2014?


Q:
Do you expect the Detroit Lions football team to be better or worse next season?


The sample size for the full survey is 1004 likely voters and the margin of error is +/- 3.09%.  The sample size for the Republican primary survey is 653 likely Republican primary voters and the margin of error is +/- 3.83%.  The Interactive Voice Response (IVR) automated telephone survey was conducted January 7-8, 2014 by Harper Polling.  The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Harper Polling