Illinois CD-10 General Election Poll
on behalf of American Action Network
June 24-25, 2014

TO:                           Interested Parties
FROM:                     Brock McCleary, President
DATE:                      June 30, 2014
RE:                           Key Findings – Illinois CD-10 Poll

Margin of Error Race with Low Incumbent Job Approval

In a rematch from 2012, Congressman Brad Schneider is locked in a margin-of-error race with challenger Bob Dold, who leads Schneider 42-39%.  Dold receives 79% of the Republican vote and 12% of the Democratic vote compared to Schneider who receives 74% support from Democrats and 9% from Republicans.  Dold leads 34-32% among independents.

Schneider’s vulnerability on the ballot is the result of voters’ low opinion of his job performance: just 28% say they approve.  With 28% disapproval and 44% unsure of his job performance, Schneider has not closed the sale with voters during his first term in Congress. 

Political Party Brand Challenges

In a district he won with 58% in 2012, President Obama’s job approval is a net negative 2% (44% approve, 46% disapprove).  The gubernatorial race also shows Democratic erosion as incumbent Pat Quinn trails challenger Bruce Rauner 49-37%. 

Congressman Schneider’s association with Washington Democrats is detrimental to his reelection hopes.  Strong pluralities are less likely to vote for a candidate who claims to be moderate and independent but campaigns with Nancy Pelosi (32% more likely, 45% less likely) or votes with party leadership 90% of the time (15% more likely, 43% less likely). 

Voter Concerns: Medicare Advantage Cuts, Business/Tax Record

Cuts to Medicare Advantage under Obamacare, which Congressman Schneider supports, make 47% less likely to vote for him.  In the context of Schneider’s questioned credentials as a businessman, 56% are less likely to vote for him upon learning of his support for an income tax increase impacting small businesses. 

In summary, the race for Congress is as competitive as they come in the country.  Unlike 2012, Congressman Schneider will not benefit from a presidential election turnout model and a popular home-state President at the top of the ticket.  That is bad news for an incumbent with a 28% job approval rating among likely voters. 


Ballot Tests


Q: In an election for Congress, would you generally prefer to vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?


Q: If the election for Congress were held today, who would you vote for: Bob Dold, Republican or Brad Schneider, Democrat?


Q: If the election for Governor of Illinois were held today, who would you vote for: Bruce Rauner, Republican or Patt Quinn, Democrat?


Job Approvals


Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Brad Schneider is handling his job as Congressman?


Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?


Messages


The candidate calls himself a moderate but then campaigns with Nancy Pelosi and the chair of the Democratic National Committee.


The candidate claims to be independent but votes with party leadership 90 percent of the time.


Obamacare cuts billions of dollars from Medicare Advantage, requiring seniors to pay more for fewer benefits or lose their doctor. Yet Congressman Brad Schneider still supports the Obamacare law. 
         

While claiming to be a businessman, Brad Schneider’s business reported no income or employees. Meanwhile, Brad Schneider supported an income tax increase that would force small businesses to pay higher taxes. 


METHODOLOGY:
The sample size for the survey is 400 likely voters and the margin of error is +/-4.9%.  The Interactive Voice Response (IVR) automated telephone survey was conducted June 24-25, 2014 by Harper Polling for American Action Network.  The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Harper Polling