To: Conservative Intel
From: Brock McCleary, Harper Polling
Date: January 31, 2013
Re: Alaska Senate Poll
In a Republican Senate primary, Governor Sean Parnell leads former Governor Sarah Palin 32%-27%. Lt. Governor Mead Treadwell and 2010 Senate nominee Joe Miller follow at 14% and 12% respectively.
Republicans who consider themselves “Very Conservative” give Palin the edge over Parnell 26%-25%. Parnell’s strength is fueled by “Somewhat Conservative” voters who pick him over Palin 39%-25%.
Palin’s standing is not the result of her being unpopular with Alaska Republicans. Fifty-six percent of Republicans hold a favorable opinion of her, while 38% say unfavorable. The problem for Palin is that Sean Parnell has a 74% favorable image with Republicans, 16% say unfavorable.
Joe Miller has a net -9% unfavorable image rating (36%-47%) with Republicans. Mead Treadwell boasts a solid 42% favorable, 19% unfavorable image among Republicans.
Among all voters, Parnell (50% favorable, 38% unfavorable) and Treadwell (32% favorable, 27% unfavorable) have net positive image ratings. Palin (34% favorable, 60% unfavorable) and Miller (21%-56%) have net negative image ratings.
In head-to-head matchups against Democratic Senator Mark Begich, Parnell is the only Republican who starts out with a lead (Parnell 46%, Begich 40%). Parnell’s strength is among younger voters 18-to-35 and 36-to-45 years old who pick Parnell 43%-38% and 51%-36% respectively.
Parnell leads among Taxes & Spending voters (52%-37%), National Debt voters (70%-17%) and Oil & Natural Gas voters (49%-37%) while Begich leads with Health Care voters (66%-19%) and Economy voters (45%-41%). The two are tied among Jobs voters (41%-41%).
Palin trails Begich 40%-47%. Palin wins among Men (46%-42%) but trails Begich with Women (51%-36%). Begich enjoys stronger support among Democrats (90%) than Palin does among Republicans (68%). Independent and third party voters prefer Begich (52%-34%).
Despite his name identification disadvantage, Mead Treadwell holds Begich to less than 45% of the vote (34%-44%).
Joe Miller is the only candidate who lets Begich get above 50% on the ballot. Miller’s weakness in a general election results from his failure to win Somewhat Conservative voters. While Parnell (64%-20%), Palin (54%-31%) and Treadwell (45%-30%) beat Begich with these voters, Miller trails 38%-39%.
If the Republican primary election for U.S. Senator were held today, who would you vote for: Sarah Palin, Sean Parnell, Joe Miller or Mead Treadwell?
If the election for U.S. Senator were held today, who would you vote for Mark Begich or Sean Parnell?
If the election for U.S. Senator were held today, who would you vote for: Mark Begich or Sarah Palin?
If the election for U.S. Senator were held today, who would you vote for Mark Begich or Mead Treadwell?
If the election for U.S. Senator were held today, who would you vote for Mark Begich or Joe Miller?
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
What is the top issue facing Alaska: Jobs, Taxes and Spending, Health Care, the National Debt, Oil & Natural Gas, or the Economy?