Conservative Intel - Harper Polling:  ALASKA

Conducted:  January 29-30, 2013
Sample Size:  1157
Margin of Error: +/-2.88

All respondents are likely voters in the 2014 election as determined by previous vote history in mid-term elections.

Poll Analysis

To:                  Conservative Intel
From:              Brock McCleary, Harper Polling
Date:               January 31, 2013
Re:                   Alaska Senate Poll

In a Republican Senate primary, Governor Sean Parnell leads former Governor Sarah Palin 32%-27%.  Lt. Governor Mead Treadwell and 2010 Senate nominee Joe Miller follow at 14% and 12% respectively.

Republicans who consider themselves “Very Conservative” give Palin the edge over Parnell 26%-25%.  Parnell’s strength is fueled by “Somewhat Conservative” voters who pick him over Palin 39%-25%.

Palin’s standing is not the result of her being unpopular with Alaska Republicans.  Fifty-six percent of Republicans hold a favorable opinion of her, while 38% say unfavorable.   The problem for Palin is that Sean Parnell has a 74% favorable image with Republicans, 16% say unfavorable.

Joe Miller has a net -9% unfavorable image rating (36%-47%) with Republicans.  Mead Treadwell boasts a solid 42% favorable, 19% unfavorable image among Republicans.

Among all voters, Parnell (50% favorable, 38% unfavorable) and Treadwell (32% favorable, 27% unfavorable) have net positive image ratings.  Palin (34% favorable, 60% unfavorable) and Miller (21%-56%) have net negative image ratings.

In head-to-head matchups against Democratic Senator Mark Begich, Parnell is the only Republican who starts out with a lead (Parnell 46%, Begich 40%).  Parnell’s strength is among younger voters 18-to-35 and 36-to-45 years old who pick Parnell 43%-38% and 51%-36% respectively.

Parnell leads among Taxes & Spending voters (52%-37%), National Debt voters (70%-17%) and Oil & Natural Gas voters (49%-37%) while Begich leads with Health Care voters (66%-19%) and Economy voters (45%-41%).  The two are tied among Jobs voters (41%-41%).

Palin trails Begich 40%-47%.  Palin wins among Men (46%-42%) but trails Begich with Women (51%-36%).  Begich enjoys stronger support among Democrats (90%) than Palin does among Republicans (68%).  Independent and third party voters prefer Begich (52%-34%).

Despite his name identification disadvantage, Mead Treadwell holds Begich to less than 45% of the vote (34%-44%). 

Joe Miller is the only candidate who lets Begich get above 50% on the ballot.  Miller’s weakness in a general election results from his failure to win Somewhat Conservative voters.  While Parnell (64%-20%), Palin (54%-31%) and Treadwell (45%-30%) beat Begich with these voters, Miller trails 38%-39%.

GOP Senate Primary

Question:

If the Republican primary election for U.S. Senator were held today, who would you vote for: Sarah Palin, Sean Parnell, Joe Miller or Mead Treadwell?

Senate Matchups

Question:

If the election for U.S. Senator were held today, who would you vote for Mark Begich or Sean Parnell?

Question:

If the election for U.S. Senator were held today, who would you vote for: Mark Begich or Sarah Palin?

Question:

If the election for U.S. Senator were held today, who would you vote for Mark Begich or Mead Treadwell?

Question:

If the election for U.S. Senator were held today, who would you vote for Mark Begich or Joe Miller?

Candidate Image Ratings

Obama Job Approval

Question:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

Top Issue

Question:

What is the top issue facing Alaska: Jobs, Taxes and Spending, Health Care, the National Debt, Oil & Natural Gas, or the Economy?

Demographics